Talk to 10 real estate agents and you’ll likely get 10 different responses on the state of the current market. At the extremes, you’ll find optimists and pessimists with various gradations sandwiched between.

While it is too early to call it a trend, data provided by David Watson of Southern Shores Realty and David Perrot of RE/Max Ocean Realty indicate the local market has hit bottom and may be poised for a mini-rebound.

Watson has been tracking two data sets relating to OBX real estate since 2003. The two groupings compare the number of “active” listings — houses and lots listed for sale on the MLS and being actively marketed — to the number of listings under contract.

Most real estate professionals consider a market to be healthy if listings under contract are at least 25 percent of total listings. Thus, if 1,000 homes or lots are listed for sale at any given time, a healthy market would require at least 250 to be under contract and waiting to close.

In 2005, after about 10 years of “healthy” market activity, Watson’s data began to diverge. Listings soared, and real estate under contract moved in the opposite direction — dramatically. What became apparent, in hindsight, was that the market was populated by short-term investors who wanted to flip properties quickly, having no intention of holding them for rental income and betting instead on rapid price increases. When a large number of houses under construction were completed, the market was flooded with inventory.

At the same time, buyers realized these houses were selling for prices far above what their rental income would support. Buyers wised up, and by 2007, mortgage lenders who also bet on increasing prices began to experience serious defaults. The market for loans on these properties dried up at the same time borrowers recognized the bubble that had fueled investment property price inflation.

In May 2009, four years after the local decline began, Watson’s data indicates there were 2,671 homes actively listed on the northern Outer Banks and in lower Currituck. Of them,155 properties were under contract — 5.8 percent of listings. In June of 2010, 2,602 active listings were arrayed against 197 under contract, or 7.57 percent. While a far cry from the 25 percent considered to be a healthy sales environment, the current numbers are a 31 percent improvement over last year.

Watson also tracks sales prices of lots and homes compared to county assessed tax value. While Realtors and appraisers argue that tax value has no validity relative to market value, tax value does supply a “constant” against which sales prices can be compared. Looking at lots and home prices that closed, one can detect stabilization in pricing since September 2009 in most Outer Banks communities. Depending on the town or area, sales prices range from 60 percent to close to 100 percent of tax value, but since last September those percentages have either stabilized, or declined/improved by very small margins.

Perrot, CEO of Re/Max Ocean Realty, supplied numbers that dovetail with Watson’s figures. Perrot’s information includes all of Dare County as well as the Outer Banks portion and the lower mainland areas of Currituck County. Through May 31, 646 lots, homes and commercial properties had sold versus 446 for the same time period in 2009. Residential housing sales increased from 386 to 553; lot sales jumped from 54 to 87.

While these raw number of sales are nowhere near the peaks seen in the first part of the decade, they lend support for the improvement seen in Watson’s data. Of even more interest, in spite of the perception that foreclosures and “short sales” are fueling the market, Perrot’s numbers indicate foreclosures were 26 percent of sales, and short sales added another 11 percent. Thus, the majority of the increase in sales was accounted for by “normal” transactions between private buyers and sellers rather than bargain pricing from lenders dumping foreclosed or distressed properties.

There are still major hurdles to broach the magic 25 percent under-contract threshold. Few banks are extending lot or construction loans, shutting down that segment of the market. Likewise, within the secondary market, where investors buy mortgage loans originated by mortgage lenders and banks — which replenishes the lender’s cash so more loans can be extended — there is no appetite for loans on investment condominiums at any down payment or price.

In addition, rental homes priced above $417,000, the limit for loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, also lack investors, even if the buyer is willing to put down 50 percent and has excellent credit scores, income and cash reserves.

Condos and “jumbo” priced investment homes constitute a majority of our rental market sales listings, and until Wall Street and federal bank regulators loosen the spigot for good loans in these categories, sales in all resort markets, including the Outer Banks will doubtless fail to achieve the “healthy market” stamp of approval.